Healthcare workforce planning: preparing for winter staffing pressure

Winter creates predictable pressure for private healthcare providers. Demand can increase, staff absence can rise and managers may need to fill shifts quickly while maintaining the right staffing levels and skills.

For private hospitals, clinics, care homes and homecare providers, the challenge is not simply recruiting more people. Effective winter staffing depends on understanding demand, workforce availability, absence patterns and the impact of last-minute changes.

A strong healthcare workforce plan helps organisations prepare before pressure builds.

Official data gives a useful sense of the wider seasonal context. NHS England described winter 2025-26 as a record winter and reported that the waiting list had reached 7.25 million in January 2026. Private providers have different services and demand patterns, but the broader lesson is relevant: workforce decisions are easier when leaders can see pressure building early. Read the NHS England update. 

Why winter staffing is difficult 

Winter demand is rarely distributed evenly across services or locations. One care home, ward or clinic may experience significant pressure while another has available capacity.

At the same time, sickness absence, annual leave and changing employee availability can make it difficult to cover critical shifts.

Healthcare providers may need to manage:

• Increased demand for services
• Higher sickness absence
• Short-notice shift changes
• Skills and competency requirements
• Overtime and agency worker use
• Multiple locations and shift patterns

When this information is held across spreadsheets, emails and disconnected systems, managers may struggle to respond quickly. This can lead to reactive planning, higher costs and additional pressure on employees. 

Why workforce visibility matters

Having enough employees on paper does not necessarily mean having enough people available to work.

Healthcare leaders need to understand:

• Which shifts require cover
• Which employees are available
• Where key skills are concentrated
• Which locations are most exposed
• Where absence is increasing
• How much overtime or agency support is being used

This requires more than a headcount report. It requires a clear view of demand, availability, skills, absence and scheduling information together.

Accurate workforce data can help leaders identify pressure earlier and give managers more options before a staffing gap becomes urgent. 

What should healthcare providers review?

Review previous absence patterns 

Look at absence by location, role, shift pattern and time period. This can help identify recurring pressure points and inform contingency planning.

Consider:

• Which teams experienced the highest absence last winter?
• Were particular shifts more difficult to cover?
• How much overtime was required?
• Which roles relied most heavily on agency support?
• Were return-to-work processes applied consistently? 

Plan around skills, not numbers

A rota may appear fully staffed but still lack the right mix of experience or qualifications.

Workforce plans should consider:

• Clinical and care competencies
• Mandatory training
• Seniority and supervision
• Night and weekend cover
• Location requirements
• Temporary and agency staff
• Employees who can work across more than one service 

Improve visibility of scheduling changes

Managers often need to respond quickly when an employee is unavailable. However, frequent changes can create confusion when they are communicated through different channels.

A consistent process should show:

• Who changed the shift
• When the change was made
• Who accepted the shift
• Whether the employee received the update
• How the change affects working hours and pay 

How employment changes affect workforce planning 

The Employment Rights Act 2025 is part of a wider changing employment environment.

Changes to Statutory Sick Pay took effect on 6 April 2026, including removal of the waiting period and Lower Earnings Limit. More employees may therefore qualify for SSP from the first day of sickness absence. GOV.UK implementation timeline

Further changes are expected around guaranteed-hours offers, reasonable shift notice and compensation for certain short-notice cancellations or changes. These measures are expected in 2027, subject to further regulations.

Zero-hours contracts remain legal and there is no immediate zero-hours contract ban. However, healthcare providers should understand how variable-hours arrangements operate in practice, including the hours people work, how shifts are offered and how cancellations are recorded.

Separate immigration changes have also made overseas recruitment more restricted for care worker and senior care worker roles. This does not apply in the same way to every healthcare role or to all foreign nationals.

Together, these changes make workforce visibility, employee retention and consistent people processes increasingly important. 

Five actions to take now

1. Review previous absence and staffing patterns.
2. Identify critical roles, locations and skills.
3. Check how shifts, changes and cancellations are recorded.
4. Review variable-hours and agency arrangements.
5. Make sure managers have consistent processes and access to accurate information.

These checks are a useful starting point, but the Employment Rights Act continues to develop. For the latest guidance, key dates and practical advice on what the changes mean for employers, visit our Employment Rights Act hub 

The role of workforce management technology

The right workforce management approach can help healthcare providers bring scheduling, availability, absence and workforce reporting into one view.

This can help managers:

• Plan staffing requirements
• View employee availability
• Manage shifts and changes
• Record absence consistently
• Monitor overtime and agency use
• Support payroll accuracy
• Report on workforce trends

The benefit is not simply having more data. It is giving managers and leaders a clearer view of what is happening across the organisation so they can make better-informed decisions. 

How MHR can support healthcare providers

MHR supports organisations across workforce management, HR, payroll, absence and people analytics.

These capabilities can help healthcare providers improve staffing visibility, manage absence consistently and give managers better information when making workforce decisions.

Explore People First to see how MHR supports connected workforce management.

For a more detailed conversation about your organisation’s priorities:

Book a personalised demo with one of our healthcare specialists. 

The information contained in this article was correct at the time of publishing. This article provides general information and is not legal advice. Employers should review the latest government guidance and seek specialist advice on their specific workforce arrangements.